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The slight increase in shipment volume comes from the high shipment expectations of panel factories, panel buyers responding in advance to the upcoming sports marketing, and predicting panel price increases, which is a consensus and resonance between supply and demand sides. If the growth rate of shipment area is greater than the shipment volume, it reflects the upward trend of the average size of panel shipments. In the first quarter, the average size of LCD TV panels worldwide was 49.3 inches, an increase of 1.9 inches compared to the same period last year. However, compared to the fourth quarter of last year, there was a decrease of 1.3 inches, mainly due to the release of demand for small and medium-sized sizes in Q1. The total shipment of products 50 inches and below increased by 20.8% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Overall, the average size will fluctuate around 50 inches in the short term and spiral upwards in the long term. In addition, in the first quarter of this year, the global LCD TV panel industry also had four significant characteristics: 1、 The mainland panel factory's "production based on sales" strategy is mature, and the operation is smooth. In the past two years, LCD panel factories have become more and more concentrated, and most of them are concentrated in Chinese Mainland. Under the Chinese language system, tacit understanding is easier to achieve than before. On this basis, panel manufacturers have achieved an 80% crop turnover rate in January, a half month annual maintenance period in February, full production from March to April, and a production reduction in May or June. The overall changes are flexible and rhythmic, and the previous concept of "full production, full sales, and production based sales" no longer exists. 2、 Panel prices rebounded strongly. Under the combined force of supply barriers for polarizers and panel factories undergoing annual repairs, stabilizing overseas terminal markets, sports marketing expectations, and panel factory business strategies, LCD TV panel prices completed a complete set of actions in the first quarter, including a hard landing, stabilization, and strong rebound. The short cycle is surprising. Continuing into the second quarter, prices for various sizes gradually reached their previous highs. 3、 Brand manufacturer orders will not be reduced. Like all consumer psychology, buying up instead of buying down always gives people a sense of security. From January to March this year, brand factories continuously added panel purchase orders, which also gave greater confidence to the strong rebound in panel prices in this round. 4、 A super sized storm is approaching. For production capacity consumption, panel factories tend to produce larger products, while oversized products can bring more revenue and profits to panel factories. In the first quarter of this year, the shipment volume of large-sized LCD TV panels of 75 inches and above increased significantly by 32.6% year-on-year, and the combined market share increased by 2.0 percentage points, reaching 8.6%. Among them, the combined shipment volume of 98 inch and 100 inch sizes has exploded by 350.0% compared to the same period last year. Looking back, this doubling growth will continue. According to the "Chinese TV Market Brand Q1 Shipping Report" released by RUNTO, in the leading region of the global TV market, the sales of 85 inch and above televisions in the Chinese market doubled in the first quarter of this year. It is predicted that by 2024, the sales of 85 inch and above ultra large board televisions in the Chinese market will reach 3.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of 51%, and the market share will reach 8.2%; The sales of 98 inch and above televisions (excluding laser televisions) will increase by 65% year-on-year. Regional pattern: Capacity regulation, decreasing land share, benefiting Japan and South Korea In the first quarter of this year, the top three TV panel companies in Chinese Mainland reduced production in order to stabilize the market and repaired for two weeks in February, thus their share in the global market declined. The total shipment volume of the four mainland panel factories in Q1 was 37.39 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and the combined market share was 66.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6 percentage points. Despite the decline in the share of the current quarter, the voice of the global LCD TV panel industry is still firmly held by manufacturers in Chinese Mainland. Under the significant regulation of production capacity in terrestrial panel factories, Japanese and Korean panel factories have become the biggest beneficiaries. In the first quarter, the combined market share of Japanese and Korean panel factories was 13.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively. LGD (Lejin Display) Guangzhou factory production capacity is gradually recovering, with an average crop turnover rate of over 70% in Q1; Sharp's production and shipment volume steadily increased in the first quarter, with the combined shipment volume of the two factories increasing significantly by 48.2% and 23.9% on a month on month basis, respectively. RUNTO predicts that from 2024, the global panel industry will begin a new round of mergers and acquisitions with more than one event, and ultimately the focus of the panel industry will further gather on the mainland. The combined market share of Taiwanese panel manufacturers Innolux and AUO in the first quarter of this year was 20.4%, a slight increase; The combined shipment volume increased by 3.3% and 10.2% month on month, respectively. |